Posted By The Marketing Institute & UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School,
Monday 18 February 2019
Updated: Friday 15 February 2019
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Property Market Grows 8%, With Almost Half Of Homes Bought With Cash
• 55,000 homes purchased in 2018 – growth of just 8%
• Almost 25,000 properties bought with cash, 45% of total transactions
• Growth of 12% in mortgages issued in 2018 rising to 30,629
• Supply failing to meet demand, with 35,000 new homes needed annually
• 350,000 new homes needed over next decade to satisfy demand
• 50,000 fewer homes bought last year than at height of boom in 2005
Dublin, February 18th, 2019:
The latest quarterly Consumer Market Monitor (CMM), published today by the Marketing Institute of Ireland and UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School, shows slow but steady growth in Ireland’s residential property market, with 55,000 homes purchased in 2018, an increase of just 8% on the previous year. Excluding mortgages from the 2018 figures, there were almost 25,000 homes purchased with cash or savings last year. This represents 45% of all the properties sold, similar to the level of cash purchases made during the recession years, 2009-2013.
While the residential property market is growing, the number of homes purchased in Ireland last year was approximately half the amount purchased during the height of the last boom in 2005, when 105,000 homes were sold. The Consumer Market Monitor (CMM) also shows that there was an increase of 12% in the number of mortgages issued during 2018, with 30,629 drawn down, but again this is a considerably lower level than during the last boom, with 85,000 mortgages issued in 2005 and similar levels in 2006 and 2007.
While market growth was sluggish, demand remains high for housing in Ireland. The CMM shows that there has been a rapid expansion in the workforce: since 2012 there have been 430,000 new jobs created and the annual rate of new household formation is at approximately 35,000.
Construction has picked up in recent years, with 15,000 new units built in 2017; 18,000 new units built in 2018 and another 20,000 and 23,000 new homes set to come on stream in 2019 and 2020 respectively. However, based on the rate of new household formation, construction levels fall short of the number required to bring housing demand and supply into balance. The CMM shows that there is a need for 350,000 extra housing units to meet demand over the next 10 years. This level of house-building would increase Ireland’s total housing stock by 17.5% to 2.35 million units.
Professor Mary Lambkin, author of the report, said: “The consumer economy is performing well in most areas, but the residential property market is still lagging behind. There were 55,000 homes sold in 2018, an increase of just 8% year-on-year, a rate of growth that has remained consistently low over the past five years. This compares to the boom years of 2005-2007 when over 100,000 homes were sold each year.
“The property market’s sluggish growth does not reflect the large increase in the working population and the rate of new household formation that has occurred over the past five years. While the number of homes for sale has increased to about 23,500, the level of property sales should be about double the current level, approaching the level that the market experienced during the early 2000s, when the workforce was about the same level as it is today”.
Tom Trainor, Chief Executive of the Marketing Institute of Ireland, said:
“The outlook for 2019 is largely positive, with fundamental economic conditions remaining strong and likely to continue to drive employment and income growth. The risk of a hard Brexit is weakening consumer confidence, in turn moderating the outlook for spending. But also, the mismatch between property supply and demand means home prices and rents are likely to outpace pay and will hit disposable income.”
The residential property market peaked in 2005 when 105,000 homes were sold and 85,000 mortgages were issued to owner-occupiers. In 2011, it fell to its lowest point when just 25,700 properties were sold and 10,500 mortgages were issued. From that low point, residential property sales crept back up year-on-year, with modest increases each year in the number of properties sold and in the number of mortgages issued to finance them. The number of properties sold reached 42,000 in 2014 while the mortgage number was 19,000 - equal to 45% of sales.
Since 2014, sales have increased by 8% per year, on average. First-time buyers have accounted for over 60% of all sales during this period. Forecasts suggest that sales will increase by a further 5% this year, a modest rate of growth that is at odds with the high level of demand that is driving up rents and purchase prices nationally.
At the low point in the market in 2009, there were 60,000 homes for sale on the property websites – a number that did not vary for about four years. As sales picked up from 2012, the stock of homes available for sale dropped year-on-year, until it reached an all-time low of 20,500 at the end of 2017.
Mortgages & Cash Purchases
There were 30,629 mortgages issued in 2018 for home purchases, compared with more than 80,000 each year during the earlier part of the 2000s. Given that the workforce is back to the same numbers as in those years, it seems reasonable to argue that the number should be at least double what it currently is in a normal market.
In the absence of mortgage finance, almost half of the homes purchased relied on cash and savings, similar to the recession years when mortgage approvals were at an all-time low. In fact, Irish households have increased their savings dramatically in recent years; bank deposits stood at €12.4 billion in 2018, compared to €7.3 billion in 2006.
Property Prices & Affordability
The shortage of supply has been driving prices up with the result that homes are becoming increasingly less affordable. The average home in Ireland costs just over five times the average income at present, which is much less than the nine times income that pertained at the height of the last boom. However, this ratio is considerably higher than the borrowing limit of 3.5 times income imposed by the Central Bank, meaning that many would-be purchasers cannot qualify for a mortgage.
The conclusion that emerges is that the property market is growing cautiously. It may not be fully satisfying the latent demand in the market, but the constraints on lending seem to be working well to prevent excessive borrowing that would drive up prices even more on the limited numbers of homes for sale. As the stock of new homes under construction rolls out into the market, the needs of more buyers can be met in an orderly way.
The upward trend in the property market is expected to continue in 2019, with sales to increase by 5% to 58,000. This will be facilitated by the increasing rate of construction of new homes as well as increasing supply of second-hand properties coming on the market.
About the Author
Mary Lambkin is Professor of Marketing in the UCD School of Business where she teaches courses to undergraduate and postgraduate students and is involved in a range of research projects under the general heading of marketing strategy. She has written extensively on this subject in academic journals, and also writes commentaries on marketing topics of contemporary interest for professional publications. She has served as Head of the Marketing Group, as Dean of the UCD Business School and as a member of the Governing Authority of the university at various times, and also holds a number of positions in companies and professional organisations outside the university.
About UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School
The UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School is Ireland’s leading business school and research centre offering world-class business programmes that equip students to become future industry leaders. It is the only business school in Ireland, and one of an elite group of schools worldwide, to hold the ‘triple crown’ of accreditation from three centres of business and academic excellence—EQUIS, AACSB and AMBA.
Academic programmes at UCD Smurfit School consistently rank among the world’s best and are accredited by the most internationally respected organisations. The Masters in International Business Management is ranked 7th in the world by the Financial Times and the school is ranked 24th among leading European business schools.
Engagement efforts have resulted in one of the world's top, business school, alumni communities with over 75,000 professionals around the globe in over 35 international chapters. Along with academic administration, leadership derives from two advisory boards, the Irish Advisory Board and the North American Advisory Board.
The UCD Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School is one of four constituent parts of The UCD College of Business and offers postgraduate courses, including the MBA and a wide range of MScs in business, to approximately 1,300 students per year. The Michael Smurfit Graduate Business School opened a campus solely dedicated to graduate business education in 1991 and grew most recently with a new centre for PhD research in 2017.
About The Marketing Institute of Ireland
The Marketing Institute is the professional body for Ireland's marketing people. It exists “to enable marketers to build great brands and great careers”. It does this by sharing best practice, insights and expert content, building the community of marketers, and aiding marketers in career progression. The three themes of content, community and career underpin all Institute activities. The Marketing Institute also owns and operates the All Ireland Marketing Awards, the CMO Summit, and DMX Dublin, Ireland's largest marketing conference.
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Posted By Mediacom,
Wednesday 13 February 2019
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Investment in advertising by Irish businesses has traditionally lagged behind that of their European counterparts. Currently, however, Ireland has the lowest advertising spend as a percentage of GDP and one of the lowest spend per capita in the EU. The recession in no doubt damaged the Irish advertising market, with a lasting impact that it has never recovered from.
Total Irish advertising spend fell by 40% between 2008-2012. Despite growth across the market being forecasted by many year after year, the reality is that the advertising spend has remained stagnant since the depth of the recession over 8 years ago. And this would be understandable, if the rest of the Irish economy had not bounced back with such a bang, and significantly outperforming other EU countries.
The purpose of this publication is not to determine the reasons why businesses fail to invest in Irish advertising to the extent of other EU ad-markets. These are many, being highly diverse and individual to each business. It is purely to put a spotlight on the differences between spend levels in Irish advertising versus that of other EU countries, noting particularly the current favourable position of the Irish economy. A comparison that is compelling, and highlights the lack of investment in advertising that exists among Irish businesses.
The truth is that there is an opportunity for the businesses that will invest in advertising ahead of the marketplace over the coming years. There is clearly a gap to be exploited, one which can drive penetration, capitalising on a consumer market with relatively strong margins and one that drives healthy returns for businesses.
For more visit www.mediacom.com
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Posted By The Marketing Institute,
Wednesday 13 February 2019
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What does a Head of marketing & Retail Development at Energia do?
My role is multi-faceted and varied but I primarily lead a team of 26 highly motivated and dedicated marketing professionals. The team consists of Marketing communications, Digital, Product management, Customer Value Management, Internal Communications and our Insights Team. I also work with all parts of the broader Energia business and I have found that marketing and creative ideas don’t just come from the marketing department.
I work with the team to develop strategy and plans for the B2B and consumer energy market. Day-to-day, we work with several agencies across creative, media buying, market research, web development, public relations, CSR and sponsorship. Our partner agencies include Boys & Girls, Richards Dee, Vizeum, iProspect, Isobar, Strata 3, The Brand Fans, MKC Communications, Behaviour & Attitudes and Legacy Communications.
Also, as part of my role I work closely with individual team members in mentoring and a skills development role. Continued development is important across the business and we actively encourage innovation from all our stakeholders; staff, management, suppliers, partners and advisors.
What were your key career moves to get to your current role?
I started out in Celtic Hampers/Family Album as a Marketing Executive about 18 years ago and after 3 years had gained a solid grounding in all things Direct Mail. From there I moved into the telecoms sphere with Perlico and then Meteor, before moving to Energia as Marketing Manager 11 years ago.
What is the biggest challenge you face in your role?
There are many, but certainly talent development and retention are amongst the biggest. We work in a fast-paced environment and developing the opportunities for a talented team member to work on interesting and exciting work is important. At Energia we are very lucky to work with great partners in the supplier and sponsorship space which has enabled the team to work on some very interesting projects and partnerships, such as our partnership with Leinster Rugby and the recent launch of our new communications campaign, Power Behind your Power.
What key skills do you need to be effective in your role?
In my role, I look to draw on several skills, both innate and those that I have learned over the years. I believe strongly in being honest with team members, suppliers and business partners – if you don’t know the answer say you don’t know the answer. Linked to that, it is important to be a clear communicator in order to convey the various requirements and expectations of the business and our customers, as well as encouraging collaboration and always pushing for creativity, innovation and fostering a resourceful and trustworthy working environment.
For me, trust is a key attribute that is required when working across such a diverse business, trusting my team and our suppliers. I work with a great team in and outside the business so I can trust that they will deliver and excel if the strategy and communications is right.
Finally, on a more practical level, being organised and goal orientated is key at a strategic and tactical level, ensuring we as a team have the right processes in place that allow for successful delivery and measurement of all activities.
Describe a typical working day.
A typical day is busy and varied, and while it is an old cliché, very genuinely no two days are the same. Generally speaking, most days revolve around sewing the various pieces together to create a coherent marketing package for delivery. A good example is the process we undertook in developing a recent campaign to support the roll out of the Netatmo smart thermostat, a new product innovation that we are selling in conjunction with our Energy Services and Product Development team. With a lot of moving parts, I was required to work with a number of different areas of the Energia business and external partners in the areas of data science and research, to ensure end-to-end delivery, from development and roll-out through to measurement and reporting.
On a final point, like many others I do spend too much of my work life in meetings but they are a necessary evil….sometimes.
What do you love most about your role?
I love the variety and if I am being honest, sometimes the madness that it brings. Every day throws up new challenges and things you haven’t thought of – especially when it comes to consumer reaction and people management. I genuinely work closely with a great team at Energia and I enjoy encouraging those around me while also trying to have some fun!
Looking ahead, where might your career path lead to next?
The Energia brand is full of promise and growing quickly so while we have achieved a great deal, I feel there is a lot more scope to grow. As a team we have won several awards over the years (AIM Awards, AdFX etc.) that we are very proud of, which drives us forward, and I am confident that there is a lot more of the same to come.
To whom do you look for professional inspiration in your role?
Generally speaking, I look to innovators – the trail blazers. If you are afraid to fail you might as well go home. Try small and then roll out to a wider audience. You need to learn and improve all of the time. Like many, I would look for learnings from Richard Branson. I completed my thesis on Virgin and their brand extension strategies into different sectors. Through innovation and trust, consumers gave them the licence to move their business into many different areas, albeit some areas were more successful than others.
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Posted By Colin Lewis, Chief Marketing Officer at OpenJaw Technologies,
Wednesday 6 February 2019
Updated: Monday 4 February 2019
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Millions of Chinese people across the world are celebrating Chinese New Year this week. It is the beginning of a new year on the traditional Chinese calendar and is the most important holiday of the year. Each year has a name associated with the 12-year cycle of the Chinese Zodiac: 2019 is the 'Year of the Pig'.
China has been in the news a lot more in the last year due to Trump’s trade wars, problems for Huawei, population surveillance and slowing growth. Regardless of what is going on on a geo-political level, for regular visitors to China like myself, taking a deeper look at what’s going away from the headlines can help marketers understand how trends in China are going to eventually affect us all. As Peter Frankopan, Oxford historian, and author of the book ‘The New Silk Roads’ writes: “all roads used to lead to Rome, today they lead to Beijing”.
When it comes to China, it is hard to get away from the one thing the country is most famous for: size and scale. The statistics are always mind-boggling. Black Friday may seem like a big event in the international retail calendar but it cannot compete with the sheer scale of Alibaba’s Singles’ Day in November, which racked up more than $30bn in sales in 2018 - 27% up on 2017. Sales hit $1bn just one minute and 25 seconds into the event; just over an hour in and they had exceeded $10bn. Alibaba also set a world record for most payment transactions with Alipay, its online payment platform, processing 256,000 payment transactions per second. The number of delivery orders surpassed 1 billion. In just one day.
Then there is the scale of ambitions that western brands have for China: Starbucks announced in 2017 that it would open 2,000 new stores in China by 2021 – one every 15 hours. Or Prada is opening of seven stores in the city of Xi’an, three in just one shopping mall, with two stores alone for classic British shoe brand, Churchs.
Luxury brands are one thing. What about something a lot prosaic, like healthcare? Ping An Good Doctor, part of the huge Ping An insurance group, has launched China’s largest online healthcare services provider, Ping An Good Doctor. Good Doctors (what a great brand name!) has AI-geared “one-minute clinics” with online consultations, as well as 24/7 compact booths and more than 100 types of refrigerated common drugs available through smart vending machines. Each clinic has an ‘AI Doctor,’ trained to collect data on patient symptoms and medical history through voice and text input, with a human-doctors providing remote diagnoses, medical advice, and prescriptions.
If scale is one thing, speed is the other half of the equation. Part of the speed is driven by the work ethos: working on the ground in China and directly with Chinese customer has shown me that the mantra of 9-9-6 is true. Meaning 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., 6 days per week. Seriously. Not exactly the 40 hour work week!
And the city in China that symbolises speed is Shenzhen. In the 1980s it was a not much more than a fishing town. Today, Shenzhen produces 90% of the world’s electronics and has 12.5 million people. The city’s real claim to fame is hardware – this is, after all, where your iPhone or drone is made. Shenzhen is now the go-to city for robots, drones, smart sensors, and wearable technology. Shenzhen has its own 70 million square feet shopping mall area called Huaqiangbei Electronics Market, where you can buy circuit boards, LEDs, microchips, sensors, mini cameras and microphones on the spot. Shenzhen is the place where you can then get your crazy idea turned into a real product: there are hundreds of factories that can turn hardware prototypes in manufactured products in a few days.
Aside from size and scale, there is one thing that Irish marketers can look on in envy at China: convenience. The words ‘friction-free’ are the best way to describe the everyday reality of many transactions in China – to a level that is extraordinary compared to Ireland.
To understand convenience in China, you have to understand the influence Tencent and Alibaba have in China. The vast majority of online activity in China happens through proprietary applications run by Tencent and Alibaba – and nearly all this is done by phone. Mobile is ubiquitous in China – a way of life, not only a medium of communication.
Alibaba’s online payments system, Alipay, controls about half of China’s online payment market. Aside from Alibaba.com, Alibaba also has its Tmall marketplace for business-to-consumer, and Taobao marketplace for consumer- to-consumer. Combine eBay, Paypal and Amazon and you get an understanding of Alibaba’s brand portfolio.
Tencent owns WeChat, which has 1 billion+ users, an incredible combination of Facebook, Twitter, Spotify, WhatsApp, Paypal and YouTube, as well as gaming that come together in one ‘superapp’. WeChat was recently called the ‘operating system of China’.
Most Chinese companies have recognised this, and build their advertising and marketing, social communication, shopping, purchasing, and payment programmes around mobile. Brands are not just purveyors of products and services, but partners helping consumers with daily living. You can use your phone for literally everything. On mobile, consumers talk, text, shop, hail taxis, book travel, trade stocks, pay for utilities, deposit money into their bank or transfer money.
As a result, China is increasingly a living insight into a future of ‘frictionless living’ – and consumers expect it: jumping a bike, ordering a meal from a huge range of restaurants, giving money to beggars on the street — all can be done at the touch of a button. From a pure payment perspective, WeChat and Alibaba’s Alipay are making cash obsolete. On a recent trip to Dalian in North East China, I found it difficult to pay cash even in modern supermarkets and convenience stores. As Duncan Clark, venture capitalist, author of the definitive biography of Alibaba founder, Jack Ma, and longtime resident of Beijing writes: ‘I feel on returning to London or Silicon Valley that I’m going backwards in time’.
And the thinking about convenience has extended beyond just payment. Jack Ma, the founder of Alibaba, coined the phrase “new retail“ to explain Alibaba’s vision of blurring boundaries between the online and offline shopping world. The company put this into action with the purchase of the Hema supermarket chain. Each of the 50 Hema grocery locations can deliver within 30 minutes. All the aisles have interactive, digital screens to give customers product information, show similar products and what the most popular items in the aisle are (by age group if that is what you want!) Prices on the screen can be changed via wi-fi – including products such as seafood where prices are determined by supply and demand. If you want, each store will cook the food you buy at one of the in-store restaurants rather than the shocking inconvenience of actually having to cook it yourself! And, of course, there is automated checkout that recognises each product and accepts Alipay.
Next stop is facial recognition: Alibaba's Ant Financial has teamed up with KFC to debut a "smile to pay" service, which allows customers to pay for their deep-fried chicken simply by smiling after placing their order at one of the fast food restaurant's self-serve screens.
However, even if you don’t believe that China today gives us a glimpse into the future, one thing you might have heard of is slowing Chinese growth, and how Trump’s trade wars mean that Chinas is going through a downturn. A look at the percentages about China annual growth make interesting reading compared to Ireland: in 2018, retail sales growth was 6.9%, compared with an increase of 9% in 2017. Not exactly a crisis!
So, happiness and prosperity to you for the year of the pig or 恭喜发财 (gong-sshee faa-tseye) in Mandarin, or if you prefer Cantonese, 恭喜發財 (gong-hey faa-choi).
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Posted By Meabh Quoirin, Co-owner & CEO at Foresight Factory,
Wednesday 6 February 2019
Updated: Monday 4 February 2019
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We are barely into the year and yet already one of our trends for 2019 has exploded. Thanks to Gillette’s ad, which claims the best a man can get is now being woke to the #metoo era - the outrage dragons are officially out (looking at you Piers Morgan). Social media sentiment analysis shows a predominantly negative online conversation (69%). This is due to a few people raging online about their damaged masculinity and an even smaller number pointing the finger at Gillette for hypocrisy (because it produced this ad while simultaneously contributing to #pinktax with their more expensive and, ironically, literal women’s pink razors) - all the while the vast majority of consumers back out of the conversation. Why? For fear of backlash and in favour of Neo-Civility.
Of course, not every brand will be jumping into the hot waters of gender politics. If you are looking for alternative trends that will kick off over the next 12 months, look no further. Our report is designed to track emerging consumer behaviours for strategic decision making. What is more, this year it received the top score from Forbes. If you want to see how opinion shifts over the year the full report on our site will update with supporting trends and data in real time - because these trends are relevant now - not just in five years.
So what are the top 10 consumer trends for 2019?
1. Neo- Civility
In the woke era knowing what is “safe” or “unsafe” speech and behaviour in any given situation can become a mindfield. It’s not just Gillette getting flack from both sides of the opinion spectrum here. Individuals are not immune either - the indignation sparked by Jesy Nelson of Little Mix dancing to R Kelly is proof of that. What will you dare to say in 2019?
2. Sustainable Me
This is about surviving in style not survival. Consumers adopt a prepper mindset to deal with life no matter what flux awaits - and writing from a pre-Brexit Britain, I can tell you that a lot of flux awaits. Check out the FIRE movement to see how far some consumers will go to attain the lifestyle they desire.
3. Titan Brands
Will Amazon disrupt family law following the Bezos/MacKenzie split? But in all seriousness, is there any category this company can’t rattle? Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, Amazon, Apple, Google - these giants are challenging brands across multiple sectors. More worrying, our research shows that when a customer has multiple services from one company like Amazon, they are much more likely to consider using the brand in categories Amazon hasn’t even sniffed at yet.
4. Light Relief
Are you watching people tidy their homes on Netflix rather than doing the dishes? Whether Marie Kondo can actually inspire more people to use her method is debatable, as consumers ask for the permission to just do nothing.This is a backlash to the culture of constant optimisation and a desire for unproductive (and mind numbing) activity. “Trashy” TV programs become self-care in a society where people just want to relax.
5. Educator Brands
Did you know that in the UK the most searched for “what is?” phrase on Google last year was “what is bitcoin?”. Consumers were seeing this term and hearing their friends talk about rising investments, but they didn’t have the tools or understanding to act on it. We expect more brands to fill this gap with rich content, becoming empowering advisors. This has a significant impact on Mar Comms and the CX consumers expect from brands when they are dealing with something perceived as difficult.
6. All Inclusive
In a similar vein, did you know that the most searched for movie in the US last year was Black Panther? Between the roaring box office success of Black Panther and the continuing debate around Me Too - diversity continues to be top of mind. Even if your brand doesn’t take a strong stance externally, having to close your entire company for racial bias training (starbucks) is less than ideal. Brands can’t ignore the debate. The identities that we will be talking about in 2019 include intersectionality, neurodiversity and citizenship privilege.
7. Prescribed Life
If that all sounds like hard work you might be a fan of this next trend. The Prescribed Life helps you to stay on top. Whether it is the new way to talk about diversity, the must listen to podcast that you have to check out now or the trainers for this season (Veja, Allbirds, what was wrong with Adidas?) the Prescribed Life has your back.Trusted brands will use individual and contextual data to make decisions for us - leaving only the joy of the big reveal.
8. Healthy Habitats
From my outlook it seems that Health trends will never die. At our global conference we showed that nearly every single sector has been influenced by health trends. The latest? The environments we inhabit. Homes, shops, offices and hotels are embedding ambient solutions into their design. Light and air pollution are banished in favour of plants, healthy lighting and biomes.
9. The AI Leap
Google debuted Interpreter Mode at CES 2019 giving hotel front desks a literal AI concierge. As consumer facing AI tech improves, consumers expect AI enabled concierge style service in multiple areas of life. This won’t just show you what is trending - it shows you the best option for you. There is more on how this works for Retail and Hospitality in our report preview.
10. Ancient Rituals
Paleo diets, ancient grains, circadian rhythms...consumers are looking back at a pre-modern or even pre-civilisation age for lifestyle lessons. This doesn’t mean consumers will be anti-tech, quite the opposite in fact as we expect to see technology assist us in our goal to reconnect with nature.
Why these trends for 2019 matter now?
It’s clear that trends are a necessary tool in a brand’s arsenal to innovate and be on top of your game. Shifts in consumer behaviour hold the answer to key strategic questions and we would love to know how you see the 10 trends for 2019 impacting your business and sector in the comments below.
If you want to find out more about the 10 trends for 2019, a preview is available here or the full report is live for Foresight Factory clients.
About the author
Meabh Quoirin is CEO and Co-Owner of Foresight Factory. A bi-lingual and experienced public speaker, Meabh is a key voice on consumer trends and analytics. Named as a ’top voice’ on the LinkedIn Influencer network in 2016, 2017 & 2018, she specialises in helping businesses profit by better understanding consumers.
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